predicting the fatal flaws

Predicting the Fatal Flaws – Can we do things differently in aviation safety?

A Conference presented by

The Royal Aeronautical Society Human Factors Group,
The Chartered Institute of Ergonomics and Human Factors, and
NATS – National Air Traffic Services

Print Logo_Black_HR CIEHFlogo2

Hosted by Virgin Atlantic Airways

Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd, The Base, Fleming Way, Crawley, RH10 9LX, UK

Thursday and Friday, 26/27 November, 2015

Post-Conference Overview

Following the very successful conference itself, the organizers and speakers agreed to make as much information as possible available to delegates and other HF professionals and practitioners through the conference web pages. You will find presentations linked to the titles on the Programme page, and additional resources linked to individual speakers on the Speaker page. There is also a dedicated forum topic for issues arising from conference presenations.

Conference Summary

There have been a number of recent disasters which defy conventional wisdom about risk. They appear unpredictable – but were they?

The shape of aviation is changing as it adapts to economic challenges, technology advances and emerging safety threats. The key question is: when the unexpected happens where will it come from and how effective will our response be?

The ‘Fatal Flaws’ at stake are those associated with increasing complexity and decreasing transparency in complex systems, especially as they create more demanding patterns of teamwork and communication both on and off the flight deck, including ATM, Engineering, Cabin Crew and PAX, as in the May 2013 BA A319 LHR incident, 2005 Helios flight 522 crash and AF 447 ditching, among others.

The evolving profile for flight operation places the flight deck at the centre of multiple networks of communication and teamwork both onboard and remote, including human-mediated and automated systems.

Civil aviation safety performance itself poses a threat to future flight safety by creating complacency about current safety measures at a time of enormous underlying change in technology and threat profiles; and because it tempts operators to look for cost reductions.

With the help of NATS and Eurocontrol the conference looks at threat trends including conflict zone overflight, changing pilot/controller and other teamwork interactions, the effect of new organizational economic pressures; and at the benefits and limitations of structured responses from SMS to safety audit tools, Safety II and Resilience Engineering.

This two-day conference considers:

  • – what we can learn from accidents about emerging threats;
  • – what has to change; and
  • – where those changes will take the industry.

Programme and Speaker Panel

The speaker panel includes regulatory staff from EASA, CAA and FAA; specialists in ATM, overflight and other hazard area topics, pilots with relevant experience, international researchers and academic authorities, and safety management and resilience experts.  There are significant opportunities to submit and discuss written and oral questions with the speakers throughout the conference.

Details can be found here: Provisional Programme – 26/27 November 2015

Intended Audience

The conference is recommended for pilots and risk managers in flight operations, air traffic control, safety systems design and implementation, CRMI/Es, regulators, Human Factors specialists, distal teamworking and related disciplines in training, Ergonomics and Applied Psychology.

Registration Fees and Booking

The conference is strictly volunteer-run, non-commercial and not for profit. Registration fees are applied directly to catering, speaker support and other direct expenses. Cost for the full two day programme from 0830 on 26 November to 1700 on 27 November, including lunches, breaks and a reception, is £250, or £150 for a single day. Cheques, credit cards and bank transfers are accepted. To book online, please see the Registration page.

* VAT is neither included nor charged.
* A 10% discount is available for RAeS, CIEHF and NATS members on production of proof of membership.
* Cancellations with full refund are only accepted until November 5th.
* The organizers reserve the right to cancel the conference with refunds at any time.